MCP: Random Crisis Protocol

So I previously did a quick look at the new crisis selection in my rule change breakdown (here). But I feel it needs a deeper look at. Clearly the main change is that with no choice any more of which of 2 you get you run the risk of having cards that are bad without priority or bad in certain matchups. Which means that certain crises might not get picked any more. 

Secures

I think secures will see the least change. Factions that might have bad matchups on certain secures already had that issue so probably weren’t taking them anyway. Here’s how Secures look at the moment on Longshanks (after >700 games) and in TTS Season 6 rosters.

SecuresLSRank LSTTSRank TTSAverage Rank
Cosmic Invasion! 5%916%99
Deadly Meteors 4%1111%1111
Demons Downtown! 16%147%11
Gamma Wave 12%440%34
Infinity Formula 14%241%22
Mayor Fisk 5%812%109
Mutant Madman 9%630%56
Portals Overrun City With Spider-People!5%922%78
Riots Spark Over Extremis 3.013%325%65
S.W.O.R.D. 12%538%45
Terrigen Clouds 7%719%88

Cosmic Invasion (Cosmic Vaults) D 

D contest secures tend to favour wider teams but there is no reason for this to change. Teams that took this before will still take it. No change

Deadly Meteors C

This was previously the lowest picked secure. It’s a flip secure that scores for most. It’s pretty bad to play on, and I don’t see any really changes here. People might pick it to counter a possible Syndicate, but I doubt it. No change

Demons Downtown. E

Beaty teams love this. It scores slowly and makes the opponent easier to kill. But because previously you had the option to not pick it into a bad matchup I think we will see less teams picking this. Which is good as it is played a lot currently. Decrease.

Gamma Wave. E

Similar to Demons except control teams liked this as well. And like with Demons there are matchups you don’t want this so some teams will have to remove it. Decreases.

Infinity Formula.B

I’m surprised this is as popular as it is. Since it is solid for most teams, we may see this picked more. Slight Increase.

Mayor Fisk. C

The teams that liked this previously will still like it, and those that didn’t won’t. No change.

Mutant Madman. B

Another flip secure. We might see more of these picked so people don’t accidentally play contest secures into syndicate and this is a good one. Slight Increase.

Spider Portals D

The D flip secure. People occasionally had this in their lineup to counter Black Order. With it being totally random now we may see some teams removing it as they don’t really like it, but other teams adding it in to play nothing but flip secures. So overall, No change.

Riot/Extremis Consoles D

It’s funny how this is so much more popular than Vaults despite both being D shapes and contested secures. I guess it’s a core set mission and people like healing! This could go either way. No change.

SWORD base

The hot topic. People who take it already will still do so. If more people take it, it will be because they’ve seen it in action. Maybe less will take it as there’s less chance of getting it and you run the risk of playing it into a team who’s even better on it. Slight Decrease.

Terrigen Clouds

It wasn’t picked much before and still won’t be. It might actually go down as people avoid the potential for a Syndicate game. Slight decrease.

So overall I don’t see secures changing much. I think the narrower contest secures will drop off a bit as people worry about dropping them into syndicate or Black Order. So we may see more of the flip secures. But I think it will be marginal. 

Extracts

Extracts is where I think we will see the big changes. There are certain extracts that you take for if you get priority but without priority they are a risk*. 

ExtractsLSRankTTS6RankAverage
Rank
Alien Ship Crashes in Downtown!9%525%66
Deadly Legacy Virus Cured?7%727%56
Fear Grips…(Hammers)20%159%11
The Montesi Formula Found7%822%78
Mutant Extremists Target U.S. Senators!5%915%89
Mystic Wakandan Herbs: Fact or Fiction?4%1011%1010
Panic Grips…3%116%1111
Research Station Attacked!13%351%23
Skrulls Infiltrate World Leadership8%615%87
Spider-Infected Invade Manhattan14%239%33
Struggle for the Cube Continues12%431%44

Alien Ship C

I think this is only so highly picked because it’s 20 threat. One of the 2 random extracts. As it is there is no reason for it to be picked more or less. But, because other extracts are going to be picked less, this may see more play. Slight Increase.

Legacy Virus C

With an odd number of secures this favors the priority player. And with an 8vp bonus for getting all three will you risk dropping it into a better team, without priority. I doubt it. Big Decrease.

Hammers (Fear grips…worthy…) D

This was already #1. With some other dropping off and it being an even secure we may see even more of it. Except it will be random, so it may be in more rosters, but less games! Slight Increase.

Montest Formula E

Another odd numbered extract. So a risk to play without priority, and a risk to take. Decrease.

Mutant Extremists C

An odd one. It’s random, but it’s not. Clearly the player with priority has the advantage so It’s a bigger risk to take it and so less will. Decrease.

Mystic Herbs A

Barely taken because it’s a pain to score. But with other extracts being more risky and this being the same maybe we’ll see an uptick in it. Assuming people have a plan for it. Slight Increase.

Panic Grips. B

It being restricted reduces how many people pick it. But it is an even numbered extract so maybe we see it being picked a bit more by teams that want to do extract plays, but don’t want to risk the F maps. Slight Increase

Research Station. E

Beaty teams will continue to pick this. If teams have it as their 3rd crisis for certain match ups they will drop it. Slight Decrease.

Skrulls. C

Like alien ship, but less threat. For the same reason though it might see a slight increase to counter balance the other changes

Spider infected F

It’s core box and great with priority if you have a plan. But now you might throw it into your opponents plan. So it will be picked a lot less. Big Decrease

Struggle for the cube F

Pretty much the same as Spider infected. Most teams can’t risk it. Big Decrease.

So the issue with extracts is that of the 11 current crises, 5 are essentially odd numbered and favour the priority player so are more risky in the random meta and will (or should) be picked less. Then we have Herbs which is unpopular due to its difficulty and Panic is restricted. That leaves just 4 crises. And one of these is Research Station which a lot of teams don’t like. So we suddenly have the bizarre situation where most teams might be running Alien ship, Hammers and Skrulls because anything else is too much of a risk if you don’t have priority. And this is why I don’t like this change to the crisis selection. 

Now there is a simple counter argument to this. And that is that plenty of rosters were probably running 2 (or 3!) of the 5 extracts that were better with priority at the present time, meaning that previously they had a 1 in 3 chance of getting stuck with those without priority anyway. So for those players, they were already taking the risk and will likely continue to do so.

But my issue with the crisis change still stands. Yes we will probably see less turn 1 plays. That’s good for the game. But if it also means that we only see a handful of the same extracts again and again the game will get boring, and people will quit a  boring game. That’s rather extreme, but you never know. Luckily there is a super simple solution – we need more D and B crises. So AMG, please, please, throw us a bunch of new crises with the rules changes.

One comment

  1. […] one of the issues/bonuses of the upcoming changes to crisis selection is that you either have to stop taking extracts with turn 1 plays or risk not having priority. […]

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